They say as a child he appeared a little bit wild with all his crazy ideas,
But he knew what was happening; he knew that he was a genius...
What's so strange when you know that you're a wizard at three; He knew that this was meant to be.
[ Updated 10 March 2010 ]
Caution this page contains critique, satire and ridicule!
Hey! They're laughing; and they're NOT laughing at ME!
I'm goin' in.
beware the ides of march
* March 9, the earth passed between Venus and Saturn. On the 7th, Mercury conjoined Jupiter, from the earth's perspective. Between now and March 15th, the moon, sun and Mercury converge on Uranus' position (as seen from the earth). On March 15th the earth, the new moon, the sun, Mercury and Uranus will be within a degree of arc in the sky. ["Beware the ides of March": William Shakespeare, Julius Caesar, Act 1, Scene II
BRUTUS - A soothsayer bids you beware the ides of March. CAESAR - He is a dreamer; let us leave him.]
The first image below shows the geocentric view of the sun, moon and the planets for 10 March 2010. Everything is moving anti-clockwise here. On the right we see Pluto, then the moon. The moon has just passed the node, the point where its orbital plane crosses the ecliptic, the earth's orbital plane. (The sun would need to be THERE for an eclipse to happen.)
Just under the number 10 we see Neptune. In a tight grouping (seen from the earth) we have Jupiter, Mercury, the sun, Uranus and Venus. Long Term we see that Jupiter has passed Neptune and is heading to Uranus. The earth passes between the sun and Jupiter and Uranus as they conjoin at the time of the September equinox.
In relationship to speed of travel, the moon is the fastest, then Mercury, then Venus and the sun. Above Venus has passed Uranus, Mercury has passed Jupiter, and the moon has passed Pluto. Looking at the chart below, you see that the earth has moved so that the sun is between us and Uranus - the sun conjoins Uranus. You also see that Mercury has reached the back side of the sun - Mercury conjoins the sun and Uranus. You ALSO see that the moon is passing between the earth and the sun at the new moon - the moon conjoins the sun, Mercury and Uranus.
You can probably tell that you will get more out of reading this if you have some way to illustrate for yourself, what I am talking about here. Although I include charts, images and videos, I strongly recommend that serious students download Astrolog, a free program that allows you to view the planets heliocentrically and geocentrically. Be sure to go to Info/Default Chart Info (Alt + D) to set your long and lat. The images here were generated with Astrolog. It has an animation function too. If you hit the x and m keys you get a black and white screen.
I have posted a 2010 Preview that includes a description of the astronomical circumstances beginning at the solstice in December 2009. Instead of having a lot of images of charts, I just have links to those. Instead of converting the .bmp's to .jpg's and reducing their size, I am leaving them larger .bmp's.
bigbytes - My Homepage (email : bigbytes at dcsymbols dot com)
*** 4.0 to 6.0 earthquake is likely March 7, 8 in Southern California, (Redlands to SE Salton Sea area) http://www.quakeprediction.com/. Ooops. That didn't happen, and was not my forecast. That's Luke. You can read more on Luke down the page, and notice how he scrubs his notices on his Twitter page so that he doesn't look so bad, leaving only the ones that make him look not so bad.
The March 7/8th prediction used to read 'dangerous risk of earthquake on March 7th' until it didn't happen, then it was changed to 7 & 8. The M 4 quake that happened on the 8th was outside Luke's risk area, and was no real danger to anyone.
Luke has a page where he posts his forecast maps, then plots the quakes that happen on them, in order to show his accuracy. Notice his complex color scheme and how he paints his highest risk area blue instead of red like normal folks?
Undaunted, Luke continues, "3.5 to 4.5 earthquake is likely in the San Francisco Bay area March 13-14. Please see maps @ http://www.quakeprediction.com/ ". Note especially that Luke likes to predict for days right UP TO the day that I pick. Watch for a year and see.
You will note that part of my plan entails comparing my methods to those of other forecasters, and I invite you to read this page for a year and see how we do. You will find that this is as much about the psychology and sociology of forecasting and forecasters as it is about forecasting itself.
Please forgive the fact that the text repeats some, but parts of this were written at different times (literally diff decades) and have been wedged together on a daily/yearly basis. Also remember that my hands hurt (see image above) and I HATE TYPING, so watch for hypos. Please forgive the fact that the text repeats some, but parts of this were written at different times.
In case you are new to this site, I will point out that these pages deal with both short term and long term phenomena. I have kept up with what is happening astronomically and geo-politically on a daily basis for a long time, and attempt to point to long term trends in areas such as California earthquakes and Atlantic hurricanes. There is a lot of material here, and it could take some of you a year to read it all. As it so happens, three cycles that I have followed for a number of years are 'coming together' to form a conglomerate of sorts. Those would be northern hemisphere winter storms, California quakes and Atlantic hurricanes.
I presume that you know that the southern hemisphere has its summer as the northern hemisphere has its winter. As the earth is closest to the sun the first week in January, that is winter in the north and summer in the south. Tidal peaks that happen near the first week of January are increased by the fact that the solar gravitational factor maximizes then. That is, the highest possible tides would theoretically occur at an eclipsing new moon that is close to the earth (lunar perigee) as the earth is close to the sun on Jan 3rd, a winter day in the north.
This year the tides have peaked at the end of January, during the northern hemisphere's winter, the first time. The second peak will be September 8th, the time when Atlantic hurricanes peak statistically. The next peak after that will be in March 2011. You can see that the days get later each year. Eclipses, on the other hand, occur earlier each year. In either case, you can see that the dates will repeat on a regular basis. In what follows, I connect winter storms and hurricanes to tidal cycles, and Caliquakes to eclipse cycles.
At one point, I show 20th century eclipse charts and plot both hurricanes and California quakes against those. All of this I tie into the fact that the sun has a direction that it travels through local space, just as the earth does. In December the earth is crossing the sun's path behind the sun, and in June it crosses the sun's path in front of the sun. NOT EXACTLY in front, but at an angle. In September the earth's direction is opposite to the sun's instantaneous velocity, while in March we are, in general, moving parallel to the sun's direction.
If you observe for a while you will see that big storm events follow the times when the tides peak, and that the nature of the storm is determined by the season that it occurs in. As I said, this year the tides peak first in the winter time, and the second time, dead in the heart of hurricane season. When the tides peak, we can expect four wet months followed by three 'drier' months, then four more wet months. As of the first week of March we have just passed the middle of the second month.
future events
We interrupt this program to bring you a bulletin. Consider the astronomical circumstances for 2010 so far. 2009 was closed out by an eclipsing full moon and a 5.8 quake in California that was the largest of 2009 for that state. The next new moon was a very long eclipse of the sun on Jan 15th that followed the pass of Venus behind the sun on Jan 11th. On January 10th there was a 6.5 quake off the coast of Eureka, California (the largest in the state since June 2005), and the Haiti quake happened on the 12th. There was a 7.1 quake in the Solomon Islands Jan 3rd, as the earth was closest to the sun.
The next full moon on Jan 30th happened within two hours of the moon's close approach to the earth causing high tides, and the earth passed between the sun and Mars at that time. Feb 4th there was a 5.9 off the coast of California. At the new moon Feb 15th, the sun conjoined Neptune. On Feb 18th there was a 6.9 quake on the border of Russia, Korea and China. At the full moon Feb 28th the sun conjoined Jupiter. A M 7 quake happened in Japan on the 26th and the 8.8 Chile quake happened on the 27th.
*** The future event that I point to is the next new moon on March 15th. The new moon occurs a day before the sun aligns with the planet Uranus (as seen from the earth), meaning that the earth, the moon, the sun and Uranus will be within one degree. If you look closely you will find also that Mercury will be passing behind the sun at the same time, meaning we will have the earth-the moon-the sun-Mercury-and Uranus within a degree arc.
*** I point to the above quakes and conjunctions as circumstantial evidence, and suggest that we can expect another Big One on/or near the 15th of March.
. . .
Take a look at this video from John entitled March 8th 2010 Update, where he does his version of a quake prediction. He is suggesting that a quake will happen near San Diego that will generate a tsunami between the 9th and the 15th (two earlier vids that were removed said to the 16th). John's problem is that for the last year he has denied that astronomy has anything to do with quake activity, claiming that his method is better suited to quake predictions, while the dates of his predictions keep coming up real close to my dates.
Another problem for John on this particular prediction is that he bases his forecasts on coronal holes and sunspots, and there are none right now. There is one filament that is all John has to use to try and pin a quake prediction on. I will keep you posted on what he does. John's last video was Earthquake Watch thru March 8th. His March 8 Update is a prediction and not a follow up to the earlier vid.
John has followed MY video with his 'official' forecast
. Notice in the info section where it reads "The most likely days for the strongest events, based on theoretical planetary stresses, are March 12th-16th". Based on Theoretical Planetary Stresses. After the Chile quake, he posted a vid saying that the quake was
hypersymmetrical with the full moon and sun/Jupiter conjunction?
In the info section you also read, "Weakening solar x-ray emissions and Astrotometry of coronal disturbances indicate significant Northern Hemisphere seismic activity in the coming week". Astrotometry of coronal disturbances means HIS ANALYSIS that he is doing of disturbance that he sees on the surface of the sun.
The image above is his evidence for his prediction for 'significant Northern Hemisphere seismic activity in the coming week'. Now, if he will just show us the 'evidence' for the Taiwan quake, the Turkey quake, the Chile and Japan quakes, and the Eureka and Haiti quakes. If you can point to a drop in x-ray emissions from the sun for one quake, and that 'method' works, then you should be able to show 10 examples of that in the past; other wise, the explanation looks like a scam.
Notice where he says, "A coronal disturbance known as a "magnetic filament" may have foreshadowed the tsunami following the recent Chile earthquake. The recurrence of a smaller filament with a form indicating the shape of a shockwave that might be projected from the coast of California may indicate that region as the origin." You can see this at :52 in the video. He is LOOKING AT ELEMENTS ON THE SUN amd supposedly 'mapping' them to locations on the earth, THEN naming the quality of the earth event; quake, tsunami, what ever.
He continues, "Data missing from the SOHO archive from the period leading up to the 2004 Indonesian Tsunami makes this hypothesis more difficult to verify". What this means is that John believes that he has had another
Breakthrough in Earthquake Prediction and Hypertime Mapping. John's claim, as of December 09, 2008, was that "By associating active regions near coronal holes with their hyper-symmetric storm activity, the position of foreshadowed quakes may be ascertained". This means that you look at the sun, then you look at 'cloud patterns' on the earth, and that will tell you where quakes happen. It is March 2010 and we are still waiting John.
NOW he noticed that a filament on the sun "foreshadowed' the tsunami after the Chile quake; not the quake itself, but the tsunami afterward. SO John is seeing another filament, he adds two and two and gets five. His suggestion is that the new filament will produce another tsunami. One example proves the case for ppl like John. Note that he says he could 'prove it' if he only had images of the sun from the time before the 2004 tsunami, as if there have been no others since then. Again, I would recommend finding at least 10 examples of that before I wrote the news media about that forecast.
John has been asked by a viewer, "What is your percentage of success at predicting these earthquake?" John answers, "I haven't had time to do a proper analysis of the "success" rate. I'm sure it's well beyond statistical probability, but it would really depend on what you would consider a "success". I try to say what is indicated by the theory as it's developing." The theory as it's developing. Someone wrote me today to say that John has been doing this 'for years'. Yeah - TWO YEARS now. Not even that. And every month we see a 'new mapping technique'.
What do the words 'beyond statistical probability' even mean here? My success rate is beyond statistical probability. You will need to have an asterisk beside that like with Mark McGuire's records, and a note that points out the fact that for the last 15 months, Johns dates have mirrored mine. And how would you rate a prediction that said 'quake on the US/Canada border on Feb 28, and one in Indonesia March 1st', when the quakes occurred in Japan on the 26th and Chile on the 27th? What is 'beyond statistical probability abt that?
He says that he hasn't had the time to do a 'proper analysis'? I will point out that that is what is missing from John's whole program, an evaluation of the data; and that he has found the time to make over 200 crappy videos.
*** MARCH 10: "astrotometry This WATCH was CANCELED March 10th 2010 at 11:03 UTC The events mentioned in the watch are no longer expected, but are still possible. Reason: Additional analysis indicates that the coronal disturbances and the magnetic filament on which the watch is based may be hypertime shadows of the recent events in Chile. The events mentioned are still thought to be possible if the hypertime disturbance from that event initiates additional events."
Did you catch that? "Still thought to be possible if the hypertime disturbance from that event initiates additional events". I hope that is clear to you, because it is not clear to me what the hell he means. A hypertime shadow is the opposite of a hypertime foreshadow BTW. One occurs after and one before an event. He is saying that his signals that he is getting are still from the Chile quake and NOT FROM a future California event that he predicted in his NOW CANCELED ALERT.
John now sez: "If you look at the activity that's still going on in Chile there's a bit of discrepancy in the continuity of coronal holes. I'll get into the theory on what I think is happening with this in an upcoming with this in an upcoming video." Discrepancy in the continuity of coronal holes? If you look at spaceweather,com you will see no sunspots and no coronal holes on March 10th? Discrepancy in the continuity of coronal holes?
Curiously John had posted two videos that predicted the quake, then he removed them and posted this: " patternsinchaos Further analysis indicates that the possible upcoming west coast quake I mentioned may be off shore, and warnings for particular areas seem impractical at this time. Thanks for your support and suggestions. -John"; THEN he posted the Earthquake Watch Through March 16th 2010 video AFTER he pulled the others, NOW he has canceled AGAIN.
questions from a peasant boy
Today when I was on my way back from the market where I had traded the family cow for some magic beans that I was hoping to try out, I was confronted with questions from a peasant boy. He wanted to know why it was that I believed that the planet conjunctions were associated with earthquakes? I, in turn, asked him if he meant why did I believe that or did he mean what did I believe was 'causing' the quakes; that is did he want 'an explanation'. I pointed out that I didn't have a 'theory' about 'why' the quakes happen then, and that as to why I believe in it, I noted that I have watched the sun, moon and planets along with quakes and storms on a daily basis since 1975.
In '75 I was given a 200 Year Ephemeris that shows the data on the sun, moon and planets from 1800 to 2000, meaning that by 2000, I had 25 years of observation notes, and 175 years of research notes about storms and quakes in that book. By 1980, I had shown the local newspaper that I could predict quakes and was given half a page of the morning newspaper to do my predictions in (Dec 1980). That April I had predicted two of the first three eruption dates for Mt St Helen's (based on the tidal peak) on the local NBC station.
"I really truly want to know why you believe that they happen when the planets conjoin?"
"I would still like to know why you think the quakes happen during this time. If we cannot answer 'why' then isnt it sort of pointless to as understanding the 'what'..?"
The implications that you refuse to give your opinion on your data gives me negative impressions of you. Is it not inhuman to wonder why?"
He probably means 'human', eh? Hmm, he gets a negative impression of me? Reckon what I think of him? He says that if we can't say why then why look at what? That makes no sense. We know the what, that is earthquakes. We are working on the when and where, and he suggests that the FIRST THING TO DO is make up a theory. As you can imagine he skips studying physics and math, and doesn't know any thing about historic quake times or circumstances. WHO IS HE KIDDING!!
[This should remind you of the scene in The Life of Brian where every time ACTION is called for, they want to form a committee to set up a time table to discuss the matter at a later date.]
His suggestion is that in order for him to get a positive impression from me, I need to come up with a theory about why this happens then. Let me ask you, if a quake happens on/or about March 15th, do I really need to make up a 'theory' to support the results? I directed the peasant boy to the March 4th archive from
spaceweather.com where we read, "NORTHERN LIGHTS: Northern spring is almost here--and that means it's aurora season. For reasons researchers don't fully understand, the weeks around equinoxes are twice as likely as other times of the year to have geomagnetic storms, (meaning that) the weeks around equinoxes are the best time of the year to look for Northern Lights."
Researchers don't know why, but they do know that "the weeks around equinoxes are the best time of the year to look for Northern Lights". That is not too hard to understand, is it? We don't know WHY, but we do know WHEN they will happen. The point is, don't sit inside THEORIZING about northern lights, go out and enjoy looking at them.
In the words of Cicero: "Sufficit si quid fiat intelligamus, esti quomodo fiat nesciamus"; meaning "It is enough that we understand what is done, although we are ignorant of how it is done".
After being directed to THIS PAGE, the peasant boy emails me a quote from down the page that was posted to one of my videos by the Village Idiot. In the video, I am trying to explain the various factors involved in accurately describing the sun's movement through space. The comment reads, "Sorry dude but you are totally wrong and it does not matter how upset you get, it does not change anything. The lame academic model of astronomy is false to the core. Academic theory has been utterly demolished in the past decade. Too bad you don't have the intellectual capacity to understand it."
The peasant boy, who never had an idea of his own in his short life writes, "I tend to agree with those comments!". I will point out again, that I am not clinging on to a 'lame academic model or theory', and state that repeatedly. That is why he got upset with me. These 'model militants' are like religious fundamentalist who want to brand you by the cosmological model you hold to. You will note that John's 'Theoretical Planetary Stresses' appears to work for these people.
"I slept with faith and found a corpse in my arms on awakening; I drank and danced all night with doubt and found her a virgin in the morning." A. Crowley Book of Lies I sugest that you read Robert Anton Wilson on the notion of 'model agnosticism'.
what's an ephemeris?
This is a good place for me to introduce Shilr, with whom I had a 'run in' over her ideas about astronomy and 2012. If you look at the very bottom of this page you will see where I have posted a video about her 2012 idea that all the planets are going to be in one line on Dec 21, 2012. It doesn't take long of looking at astronomical software to prove that not to be true. On the left you see the geocentric numbers for 21 Dec 2012, and on the right side you see the heliocentric numbers.
Please see Shirl's video entitled 2012 planetary alignment. That video contains her argument that an ephemeris doesn't give you an accurate picture of 'what is going on'. You will have to watch that to see her train of thought. What she is suggesting is that there may be an alignment happening that doesn't show up in books or astronomical software?
The image above is a screen capture from the vid. Shirl thinks that the planets are 'thousands of light years away'. A light year is how far light travels in a year. Ask a fifth grader how long it takes for sunlight to reach the earth? These eighth graders mainly disqualify themselves by the remarks that they make regarding scientific issues.
current events
This is the chart showing the sun, moon and planets around the earth on Feb 27th (the day of the M 8.8 quake in Chile). The zodiac signs are 30 degrees each, and the moon moves about 13 degrees a day. Late on the 25th/early on the 26th in some places, the moon conjoined Mars. The 27th the moon is close to the earth and opposite to Mercury and Neptune which are conjoining. While the tides are high due to the fact that the full moon is relatively close to the earth, I am pointing to the planetary factors here.
Feb 27 the moon opposes Mercury which conjoins Neptune
On Feb 26th, the moon passed Mars, and on the 27th it made its close approach to the earth for the month. (That is at the bottom of the chart above.) Also on the 27th, Mercury conjoined Neptune (at the top of the chart), AND the moon was opposite to both of them.
On the 28th (seen below) the moon is opposite to the sun at the full moon as the sun conjoins Jupiter. The moon opposes Venus and Uranus, then it conjoins Saturn on March 1st. In two weeks the moon will be conjoining the sun and all the planets at the top of the chart. They will be in a different configuration then, which I illustrate in an image below.
Feb 28 the moon opposes the sun which conjoins Jupiter
So far we have seen
quakes off Japan, Chile and Argentina. We are also seeing an uptick in
California quakes. The M 7 quake in Japan was on the 26th, the 8.8 quake in Chile was on the 27th, and it was followed by M6 aftershocks through the 28th.
*** The M 6.5 quake off Eureka, CA happened just before, and the M 7 quake in Haiti occured just after the sun conjoined Venus. The 6.9 quake that happened where Russia, China and Korea meet, occurred as the moon conjoined Venus conjoining Jupiter. These quakes have occurred as the moon opposes the sun conjoining Jupiter. Venus conjoins Uranus on March 3rd.
Remember that the earth is at the center of this chart, and that everything moves anti-clockwise. Here we see Mercury has passed Neptune, the sun conjoins Jupiter, and Venus has yet to catch Uranus (It does that March 3rd.). After Venus passes Uranus, we see that the sun, Mercury and the moon all arrive at the same time at Uranus. The new moon March 15th will see Uranus, the sun, moon and Mercury within one degree of one another.
If you look closely at those two charts you will see that by the 15th Venus is beyond Uranus when Mercury and the sun and moon reach there. This means that Mercury passes Jupiter in the middle there. It does that March 7th (seen below).
You probably don't need another chart to show you that the moon will be on the right side of the chart on March 7th, since it is at the bottom Feb 28th and at the top March 14th. This also means that it will be on the left hand side at the equinox March 21st. While the sun conjoins Uranus on the 16th, we pass between the sun and Saturn on the 22nd of March.
This means that from March 7th through the 21st the moon will move from the right to the left of the chart, by way of the group of planets at the top. Between the 13th and the 17th, the moon will pass in front of Neptune, Jup, the sun, Mercury, Uranus and Venus. The closest grouping that includes the moon will be March 15th when the moon, sun and Mercury all arrive at Uranus position (as seen from the earth). As it will take another week for the sun to oppose Saturn, the moon will be square to them then (at qaudrature, 90 degrees to).
Below is the chart for March 3rd. As you can see, the moon has passed its conjunction with Saturn. You can also see the conjunction of Venus and Uranus that I mentioned. After the moon passed Mars there was an M 7 quake in Japan. As the moon was close to the earth the 8.8 quake in Chile occurred. The aftershocks above M 6 continued through the full moon and conjunction of the sun and Jupiter.
March 3
Today (March 3) there was another M 6 aftershock in Chile and a 6.4 quake in Taiwan, as Venus conjoined Uranus. Those have been followed by another 6.1 aftershock in Chile, a 6.4 quake in Vanuatu, and another 6.3 quake in Chile on the 4th. More 6+ quakes in Chile and a 6.5 in Indonesia March 5th. Mercury conjoins Jupiter on the 7th and Venus opposes Saturn March 9th.
March 7
At the top of the chart above we see (left to right) Venus, Uranus, the sun, Jupiter, Mercury and Neptune. Jupiter has passed Neptune on its way to its September conjunction with Uranus (near the equinox). Venus has passes Uranus, and the sun has passed Jupiter. Mercury has just reached Jupiter. During the next week, the sun, Mercury and the moon will all converge on Uranus' position.
On March 7th we have seen a 6.3 quake in the South East Pacific Rise, west of Chile. March 8th we see a 6.0 quake in eastern Turkey that killed at least 50 people, as well as a 6.0 quake in the Marianna Islands..
*** Below we see the chart for the new moon March 15th. The earth is in the center and Saturn is on the left. On the right we see Jupiter low and Venus high, and in the middle the sun, Uranus, the moon and Mercury within one degree of one another. Yikes!!
March 15: sun, moon, Mercury and Uranus w/in one degree
speaking of the equinoxes
Further up the page there is a quote that reads, "For reasons researchers don't fully understand, the weeks around equinoxes are twice as likely as other times of the year to have geomagnetic storms". The March equinox will be a week after the new moon grouping. At the same time, this year, the earth passes between the sun and Saturn.
In September, the equinox happens as the earth moves between the sun and the conjoining Jupiter and Uranus. The moon will be full then.
When is Easter? Easter is the first Sunday, after the first full moon, after the March Equinox (about 3/21). Taking a look at a list of 2010 full moons, we see one on March 30th, a Tuesday. The next Sunday after that is April 4.
. . .
what a difference a year makes
To read the whole story on this you can look down the page for a section about Saturn's influence on earthquakes. This is a social-psychological 'aside' notation about forecasters. Late in 2008, I was writing about how quakes were clustering around the monthly pass of the moon by Saturn. I looked at the astronomical data for 2009 and produced a list of the times when this happened then. My suggestion was that we could watch those dates for quakes to see if that idea 'worked' for 2009? My looking at data showed that the Sept moon/Saturn conjunction happened at a new moon, and near a conjunction of Mercury with the sun.
As I had written about eclipse patterns and California quakes since the 1980's, I knew that we were due for larger California quakes. In Dec 2008, I posted a video where I predicted a California quake for the new moon Sept 18th that conjoined Saturn. I picked one day rather then bracketing the whole week of the equinox when Mercury conjoined the sun too. On Sept 19th there was a M 5.1 quake in Calexico which was the largest quake in the state of California that year, at that time. That quake was followed by a 5.2 before the next full moon and a 5.8 just before the eclipse Dec 30th. Then we saw a 6.5 on Jan 9th, just before Venus conjoined the sun and the Haiti quake. The Sept 19 quake was the first in this series.
If you look at the 2009 world quake data you will see that two M 7 quakes happened Jan 3 as we were closest to the sun. Next we see M 7 quakes the day that the moon conjoined Saturn in both January and February. I posted a video Feb 14th, following the Feb 11th quake, which I entitled April 6th Quake. The killer quake in Italy happened on April 6th.
I wrote to several ppl about the moon and Saturn, and one of them was John Thomas Bryant, Jr. Here (Dec 2008) John announces Entering a Period of Significant Earthquake Activity, due to a coronal hole that he has been watching. There were two 7+r quakes on the January the third as we made our close approach to the sun. John denied the connection. After the quakes he posts
this video to try and account. Note where he says at :40, "I didn't expect it to be this big".
Please see this video Feb 14th Earthquake Prediction, where he is explaining why he posted a prediction AFTER the quake of Feb 11 had occurred, and is predicting more quakes to follow, due to ejections from the sun. ["Another large quake or series of quakes may be indicated by holes in the solar corona. The location and magnitude of the quake are unknown."]
Notice at 1:30, where John suggests that I am more interested in who is right than in what is right. That comes after he mentions my California quake prediction based on astronomy. He is still opposing me and that model here. I said Sept 18 (in a Dec 2008 video) and the quake occurred Sept 19th. That was also a conjunction of the moon and Saturn near a Mercury sun conjunction. (Like Jan 4-6, 2010).
I posted a video on Feb 14th where I pointed to the moon's conjunction with Saturn on April 6th as a quake marker. The quake in Italy occurred on April 6th. See Earthquake Prediction AV, where John forecasts quakes up to the 5th, but not the 6th. Note that he names Indonesia and Japan. Note also, he is predicting based on the 'look or shape' of the coronal hole. He follows the first video with
a second one where he lists several 5+ quakes that supposedly happened due to a storm from the sun. As I point out, the big quake was in Italy on April 6th when the moon conjoined Saturn.
SO, if you had followed John's forecasts and this page for the last 15 months you will see John saying that his 'astrotometry' model is better than the astronomical model, yet you will also see that HIS dates are curiously close to my dates? Now (Feb 28, 2010) we see that John has produced a video entitled Chile Earthquake Hypersymmetry with Full Moon - Jupiter Conjunction.
And today we see this remarkable statement from John, "The Japan/Chile quakes also happened at the full moon with Jupiter nearly perfectly conjunct with the Sun. Haiti had Venus conjunct. (See my earlier vid.) This it's common for these major events to coincide with full moons and solar conjunctions.". Notice how the language was borrowed from this page. John reduces the astronomical model to one sentence and embraces it as if it is family now. He failed to mention new moons and eclipses, the tides, and the conjunctions of the planets with each other, but he is brand new at real astronomy.
. . .
Coronal holes and earthquakes - If you go to spaceweather.com and look on the left hand side of the page you see an image of the sun under the words 'coronal holes'. Today we read, "There are no large coronal holes on the Earth-facing side of the sun". If you go to the top right corner of that page you can search their archives by the day. If you go to Feb 17th you will read, "A minor solar wind stream flowing from the indicated coronal hole should reach Earth on Feb. 19th or 20th". If you step forward from there, you will see no more coronal holes reported by spaceweather.com since then.
Note that the M 6.9 quake that occurred where Russia, China and Korea meet was on the 18th, before the gust of solar wind arrived.
From the web: "The solar wind is a continuous stream of ions (electrically charged particles) that are given off by magnetic anomalies on the Sun. The solar wind is emitted where the Sun's magnetic field loops out into space instead of looping back into the Sun. These magnetic anomalies in the Sun's corona are called coronal holes. In X-ray photographs of the Sun, coronal holes are black areas. Coronal holes can last for months or years."
The solar wind is emitted from coronal holes on the sun, and if the sun is in the right place in its 27 day rotation period, the wind could impact the earth and generate geomagnetic storms and effects. If it is not directed at the earth, the wind just goes of into local space. How long it takes to reach the earth varies as the 'wind speed' varies. The effects last for a few days.
Predicting earthquakes by coronal holes is complicated by the fact that there are many more quakes than there are coronal holes, and the coronal holes could last for a month. Which quakes in a month would you count? To correlate a quake with a coronal hole, you need to find a record of one that is recognized by other people, like the spaceweather.com archive. Then it would be a simple matter of locating the quake, the coronal hole, and a graph showing magnetic storms on the earth.
See this video entitled Earthquake Watch thru March 8th where he talks about 'recent holes in the solar corona'. Notice that he features an image of the rotating sun but does not indicate where the holes supposedly are? When he speaks of a northern hemisphere quake and a southern hemisphere quake, that is because he is 'seeing' coronal holes in the upper areas of the sun and the lower areas. John claims the ability to look at the shape and locations of coronal holes on the sun, then to predict where on the earth a quake will happen.
[While he has NOT been correct, that has not stopped him from taking credit for his predictions. As you can see, I do my forecasting ahead of time. If you watch John, you will see that he is in a habit of posting a video just after, just as, or a few hours before an event - not ahead of time, even though he likes to bracket two weeks of time. I invite you to watch for a year and see how many of John's dates match mine closely that I have already posted ahead of time.]
For the northern half of this forecast, he is bracketing a 10 degree band centered on the US/Canada border; near where the Winter Olympic Games are being held. For the southern half of the forecast he is bracketing a 30 degree band centered on 31 degrees south, and pointing specifically to the islands to the east of Australia. And he is bracketing a 10 day period of time. That is 40 degrees for 10 days; you should be able to produce a hit with that approach, eh? Plus anyone that listens to that gibberish will believe anything that you tell them, so you can make just about anything in the next two weeks appear to 'fit'. (Take a look at the comments posted to that vid, and see how many people are calling a Japan quake a hit for that forecast; then the Chile quake too. Those both occurred before his target dates.)
* Feb 27: Today we see at spaceweather.com, "A solar wind stream flowing from the indicated coronal hole could reach Earth on or about March 2nd". The last time they mentioned a coronal hole was Feb 20th. On the 26th we have seen a quake in Japan and now the series of quakes in Chile. Not Canada or the Pacific islands. You will please note that John never mentions astronomical circumstances in his forecasts which always point to supposed events on the sun.
Please see John's video entitled 7.0 Magnitude Quake in Japan. Look at :55 in the video where he shows a graph and speaks of the "beginning of the geomagnetic disturbances associated with the event", and at 1:00 where he points his cursor (seen below) to the "goemagnetic anomaly that is usually associated with these events". He is calling that his physical evidence for the Japan quake Feb 26th.
So, you would think that if a magnitude 7 quake would result from a visible geomagnetic anomaly on the 26th, that John should be able to point to the geomagnetic signatures for the 8.8 quake and the over 150 quakes over magnitude 5 that have occurred in the last three days?? It should be real easy to check other recent large quakes against geomagnetic anomalies to try and support this idea, but John hasn't done that in two years yet. It only makes sense that if you are going to make statements like 'geomagnetic anomalies LIKE THIS (showing an image) cause earthquakes', that you would want to back that claim up with historical facts, eh?
Also you gotta wonder how he can watch big quakes happen at tidal peaks with planets conjoining and talk only about solar activity, but never about astronomy. His viewers never mention it either. Just as John says he can locate quakes on the earth by studying the shapes of coronal holes and cloud patterns on the earth, he has now posted a video suggesting that since there was a filament on the sun before the Chile quake, that the filament is a hyper-shadow of tsunamis. That is, if you see as filament on the sun in the future, you can now expect a tsunami. Why? Because John sez that the filament 'looked liked' an image that he saw depicting tsunami waves. Be sure to warn people when you see filaments on the sun; and thank John for that :-)
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Frictional heating and earthquakes - Take a quick look at this Twitter page where we see, "Swarm of earthquakes in Redlands & forecast maps indicate 5.0-6.0 earthquake possible Feb 20-23 http://www.quakeprediction.com/ 3:02 PM Feb 20th from web". Now look at his page marked Track Our Forecast Accuracy and look at Feb 20, 21 and 22 where you will see "No earthquakes >2.9 on Feb 20 or 21 or 22". This method does not appear to work well. I have told this guy a hundred times that quakes are not 'likely' if they don't happen. The word he is looking for is possible, but that is neither sexy nor dramatic.
Notice that his first 'accuracy' map is for Feb 10th and there were no quakes >2.9 then either. Now let me ask you, wouldn't YOU start a gallery like that on a day where you had a 'hit'? But nooo, this genius begins his display of the accuracy of his method with an image that has both ends of the state rated as being at a VERY HIGH risk for quakes, when there were none. You can't write this stuph. There were also none above 2.9 on the 18th, and the 3.0 on the 15th was downgraded, so out of 13 accuracy maps wee see 6 with no quakes above 2.9, even though they ALL feature areas marked VERY HIGH risk. (Read ALL his tweets to see how this guy acts over a long period of time.)
Now (Feb 24) take a look at the same Twitter page and you will see that he has simply scrubbed several days tweets, and today we read 'extended warning'. He is suggesting that a swarm that ended on the 19th, with several days with no quakes above 3.0, is an indicator of a 6.0 quake. You gotta wonder; if that is true, you would think that 'scientists' would already be on that? Note that the evidence that he points to is his maps and some quakes. He is acting as if his maps are the thing to look to here.
Go ahead and look at his maps. Every day shows an areas marked very high risk, but if you read carefully you see that has nothing to do with magnitude. That is his way of show the percentage of risk only. He predicts magnitudes separately, so the area in the north may be marked very high risk for a 3.0 and the south VHR for a 4.5 quake. No matter; every placed marked VHR that no quakes happen in count as a missed prediction. And extending deadlines doesn't work here. We call that fudging.
Feb 26th: Luke has scrubbed his Twitter page again. Now a magnitude 3.9 quake has occurred on the Mexican border just before the full moon. Feb 27th: Luke has scrubbed his accuracy maps down to Feb 26th. On the 26th we see this on his Twitter page, "NEW: Improved earthquake forecasting model - please see new forecasts at; http://www.quakeprediction.com/ ". Take a look at Feb 10th, "NEW; Improved earthquake forecasting model. Please see maps @ http://www.quakeprediction.com/
8:57 AM Feb 10th via web ". Two new improved models in two weeks.
Take a look at his "maps @ http://www.quakeprediction.com" for Feb 27th and 28th and notice no real high risk zones being marked. Now look at a list of southern California quakes. Luke is a contrarion; when he saw that I was targeting Feb 26th through March 3rd, he predicted quakes right up to the 25th, then predicted a drop off as my time period approached. As you can see, just the opposite has happened. I invite you again to watch this page for a year - Luke's too :-)
As you can see below, Luke works on a sliding scale. That is where you talk about 'dangerous risk' on a particular day, then when your quake doesn't happen on time, you just extend the forecast. It would be one thing if he was one or two days off, but he hasn't even been close!!
. . .
*** Feb 24th: I have awakened today to find an email that was sent when someone made a comment to a Utube video of mine. The video was entitled "California Earthquake Prediction for September 18, 2009". The comment was, "I wonder what these idiots think when their predictions dont come true the day it suppose to happen?" The commentor was ChaseWN027, and he is a 26 year old child. I wrote and asked Chase what he majored in at college? I have been doing this since 1980.
Listen carefully because I am going to repeat this several times on this page. When there are several 'planetary aspects' close together (like Feb 26-Mar 3), it is hard to pin point one day, so some people will bracket a time period, or use a sliding scale like Luke above. In that case I picked the day of the new moon in September, which fell on the 18th. I posted in Dec 2008. The magnitude 5.1 quake in Calexico on Sept 19th was the largest in the state that year at that time.
If you look down the page, you will see a section about forecasting California quakes where I show how the moon's declination has been related to Caliquakes, and had been predicting an uptick in their magnitudes. The 5.1 Sept 19 was followed by a 5.2 Oct 3, and a 5.8 Dec 30, then a 6.5 Jan 9th. The Sept 19th quake initiated this series.
I will point out that on Feb 14th I posted a video on Utube entitled April 6th quake, which pointed to the moon/Saturn conjunctions as a quake marker. The 2009 quake in Italy happened on April 6th. If you watch my video and read the comments and info sections you will see that I spell all that out, but many Utubers like to make dull comments that THEY BELIEVE make them look clever with out reading or watching. I always suggest to them that the method is to watch and read first THEN pull down yer pants and show yer ass.
Things are going Great, and they're only gettin' better.
The Future's So Bright I Gotta Wear Shades!!
I studied math and physics first at college as an apprentice rocket scientist until I discovered a used 'Introduction to Philosophy' book that summer that I spent so much time at the A.R.E. in Virginia Beach. When I went back to school I switched to social science classes and graduated with a degree in Philosophy. I studied Philosophy, Sociology and Psychology at the graduate level before entering the building trades. I frame and maintain buildings and am a rod and instrument person for surveying crews.
I have studied statistics at the undergraduate and graduate level, so I tend to take a hard look at people's presentations and forecasts. Graduate level studies are more rigorous than most people in the street or undergrads care to work with.
Note also that there are no ads here. I don't have my name spread all over the page with a picture of myself. Some ppl are annoyed that I am not promoting a personality, just presenting ideas and contrasting approaches to forecasting. As I say, when we present a forecast we are either presenting a model of some kind or we are suggesting that we are a see-er of sorts. A forecast based on a model should be based on historical data that indicates a trend that repeats and is predictable, like moon phases and the tides. That is what I am trying to do here.
. . .
predicting when quakes will and will not happen
See this quote from down the page, "I expect earthquake spikes near 1) the moon/Sat conjunction (Feb 2th), 2) the conjunction of Venus and Neptune (7th), 3) when the moon reaches Mercury, the sun, Neptune, Venus and Jupiter (11-14th), and 4) when the moon conjoins Uranus and opposes Saturn as Venus reaches Jupiter (Feb 16-7)." Another way of saying that would be that I expect quakes not to happen between those days. Like right now, I don't expect quakes over M 6 during the next week (Feb 19-25).
In the past, I have pointed to the moon/Saturn conjunction as a quake marker. In February the moon passed Saturn just after the full moon of Jan 30 that came so close to the earth. The conjunction was on Feb 2 and we saw a magnitude 6.2 in New Guinea on Feb 1. There was a 6.4 quake on the 7th (largest since the Haiti quake Jan 12), a 6.1 in Tonga on the 13th, and a 6.2 in Indonesia on the 15th, and now a 6.9 on the 18th.
I am suggesting that in general, periods where the moon does not conjoin planets, and planets don't conjoin each other will see lesser quake activity and magnitudes. Consider the chart below, where everything moves anti-clockwise. At the bottom of the chart we see Mars, the moon and Saturn. Pluto is on the top right (2 O'clock).
Feb 28 Full Moon, sun conjoins Jupiter
The chart is the full moon chart, so the moon is opposite to the sun, which you can see is conjoining Jupiter then too. From left to right at the top we see Uranus, Venus, the sun, Jupiter, Mercury and Neptune; that is three fast ones and three slow ones paired with each other. Here Mercury has passed Neptune already, the sun catches Jupiter, and Venus will catch Uranus on March 3. (This makes an incredible animation if you watch it change by the hour in Astrolog.)
On the bottom of the chart, we see another full moon that is very close to the earth, as the perigee on the 27th is just 18 hours before the full moon on the 28th. On the first of March the moon conjoins Saturn again after having passed Mars on the 26th. I suggest that is when the next series of larger quakes will occur. That and more bad weather. Beware of when the snow stops and it starts to rain instead. When it warms up enough for that to happen (during tidal peaks), then the flooding begins. Watch and see.
*** Feb 23: A strengthening storm will dump over a foot of snow across upstate New York, western New England and the St. Lawrence Valley late today into Wednesday. Even at its peak intensity, the storm will pale in comparison to the storm set to strike the Northeast later in the week. That storm threatens to batter many areas with damaging winds late Thursday into Friday. Drenching rain and coastal flooding may target the New England coast with an all-out blizzard potentially blasting other parts of the Northeast. Also...
A significant Pacific storm will slam into California late this week, most likely on Friday. The storm will be loaded with moisture as it moves inland, and the result will be heavy rainfall across a large portion of California, while heavy snow falls in the mountains. This is the type of storm that could produce widespread flooding and dangerous mud slides. Strong winds will also buffet the coast and mountains.
*** Feb 24: 1st round of storms blankets Northeast: Nearly two feet of snow in eastern New York, one foot in Vermont. In parts of eastern New York and over 120,000 customers are without power, and nn Vermont, almost a foot of snow fell across the state overnight, leaving nearly 10,000 customers in the dark.
Now, if you look at the chart, you will see wide open spaces on each side where there are no planets for the moon to encounter. This week it is moving across the left side toward Mars. The moon passes Mars on the 26th as Mercury catches Neptune, then it opposes the sun as it conjoins Jupiter. The moon opposes Venus and Uranus then passes Saturn on March 1, and Venus catches Uranus March 3. Then the moon moves up the right side of the chart.
I recommend a peak between Feb 26 and March 3rd. Scroll down the page and look for an image marked "Feb 2 the Moon Conjoins Saturn". If you read that section, you can see what happened during the last month with peaks and lulls in the action.
I would like to point out that as we approach the full moon (it is Feb 23), that there are currently no tropical cyclones, the only sunspot is not large or threatening, there are no large coronal holes on the sun, and there have been no recent coronal mass ejections. The moon conjoins Mars on the 26th.
In the image above you can see the heliocentric view of the planets for Feb 20th. In general we can say that Saturn is opposite to Uranus and the earth is opposite to Neptune across the sun. If we look closely we find that the earth was actually opposite to Neptune on Feb 16th, it will be opposite to Jupiter on Feb 28, and opposite to Uranus March 17th. March 15th is a new moon and the 21st is the equinox. On March 22, the earth passes between the sun and Saturn. That should be an exciting week!!
Below we see the chart for the new moon March 15th. The earth is in the center and Saturn is on the left. On the right we see Jupiter low and Venus high, and in the middle the sun, Uranus, the moon and Mercury within one degree of one another. Yikes!!
If you look at the Feb 28 chart again you can see that all the planets but Pluto are in two arcs in the sky. Last month the moon conjoined Mars near the full moon and tidal peak. This month the full moon and second tidal peak will occur opposite to Jupiter. In March the full moon will occur near Saturn in the sky. In between those, new moons occur at the top of the chart. It just so happens that the new moon next month will conjoin Uranus and Mercury within days of the equinox and the moon Saturn conjunction. Those will be the next quake peak periods.
In terms of the four big planets, we note that Saturn opposed Uranus on Sept 1, 2009, and Jupiter conjoined Neptune on Sept 11th. Now Jupiter is moving on to Uranus, which it will catch on Sept 23rd, 2010. This means that it will oppose Saturn this year too. (In 1872 a large Caliquake happened when Jupiter conjoined Uranus opposite to the Saturn.) The sun conjoins Saturn on Oct 1th. That will be another exciting week!!
The full moon with the conjoining Jupiter and Uranus
Just before the sun conjoins Saturn near the equinox.
The image below is a geocentric view of Sept 23, 2010 (the earth is at the center). The earth is directly between the conjoining Jupiter and Uranus as the moon joins them at the full moon. The sun conjoins Saturn 8 days later. This will be occurring as the tides are peaking the second time this year (more on that down the page).
Hindcasting
Since analogues form the basis of all long range forecasts, to be successful, it is essential that the forecaster be a historian of the phenomenon with which they deal. When presenting a forecast (unless one presents one's self as a psychic) we are actually testing an analogue or predictive model, based upon examination of historical data. The method consists of analyzing a data base, in order to try to uncover sequential and recurring patterns that can be used to predict the phenomenon in the future (if that be possible). The key lies in choosing the right data to examine.
This "pattern matching" technique is identical to what we call the "hindcasting" method of astro-meteorology, which entails examining the astronomical configurations that occur at the times of certain events or phenomenon, and projecting any pattern found into the future. [Note that in schizophrenics, this pattern matching function is cancerous, that is, it is
out of control. Thanks to S.O.D. for the link.]
Astro-meteorology and seismology
Astro-meteorology and seismology are studies of significance that depend on both objective and subjective techniques; utilizing empirical, largely analogue methods. Accepting that what happens on the Earth in regard to metereorological and seismic activity can be affected by the positions and motions of the sun, moon, and planets, astro-meteorologists attempt to extract moments of "astronomical significance" from the flux of time, by identifying "significant" astronomical configurations.
Please note that long-range forecasts generated by astro-meteorological research should not be seen as competing with that from people in other areas of concern, but rather an attempt to help extend the range of techniques and procedures at the forecaster's disposal; as well as helping to strengthen confidence in popular analogues, or to indicate where they might be unreliable or ineffective.
I would point out that disaster events are quantified in three main ways: 1) as to the magnitude of the event, 2) as to the number of deaths that result, and 3) as to the dollar value of the damage that results. Due to the nature of the events, you will get different looking data results if you search in any one of the three categories. This means that while you can have large quakes that produce a lot of death and damage, a smaller quake can also produce a lot of D&D if it strikes in a city with poorly built structures and no building codes.
On the flip side, you will need to take that into account when you evaluate the outcome of a forecast. Many times powerful storms form that never affect populated areas, and as likely as not, the storms that cause a lot of D&D aren't always the big ones.
If you read this whole page, and the associated pages, you will see me point to patterning in California quakes, Atlantic storms and winter storms. I suggest that storms, as a general rule, happen when the tides peak, and that the nature of the storms depends on when the tides peak, meaning in what season. This year, the tides peak in the middle of winter, and next year they peak at the end of it. Our troubles are only half over for this winter, and next winter will pose special problems again. Please see the Winter 2009-10 section below.
Between this winter tidal peak and the one next year, the tides will peak on Sept 8th, the same time that hurricanes peak in number statistically. There are other factors involved that you can read about in the Atlantic hurricane section below. Notice, in the calculator below, that the lunar perigee coincides very closely (2 hours) with the full moon on January 28 and the new moon on September 8 (6 hours). Feb 27th the perigee is only 18 hours before the full moon.
Lunar Perigee and Phase Calculator
To display the date, time, and distance of lunar perigees and apogees
for a given year, enter the year in the box below and press
"Calculate".
The Moon Phase Table
This table gives the time of all new and full Moons in the indicated
year, as well as the last phase of the preceding year and the first
phase of the next year.
In terms of forecasting, we can say that a method is most effective if it can be illustrated to another person who can turn around and do the forecasting on their own. I read about the connection between tides and storms in January of 1974 in Time and Newsweek magazines, and it made sense to me. I recommend that you can use the tables above to forecast meteorological disturbances into the future, and suggest that you compare the times of past geo-political happenings to tidal peaks; especially storms.
*** Jan 12 - A magnitude 7 quake has occurred in Haiti, and has been followed by 5.5 and 5.9 aftershocks. Venus conjoined the sun on the 11th. Venus and the sun were within half a degree of one another at the time of the 6.5 California quake Jan 9th.
Please see : The Cause of Haiti's Latest Earthquake: Is the Worst Yet To Come? A Look At the Seismic Science in the Caribbean, which points out that, "Seismologists know that between 1751 and 1770 Haiti and its environs were struck by three major earthquakes, each about ten years apart", and asks, "If we know they're coming, how can we protect cities in the Carribean so that the devastation in Haiti never happens again"? The same might be asked of hurricanes, which will be Haiti's next problem in a very few months. Once again, "we know they are coming".
Serious students will want to look at the perigee and lunation tables and notice that 1) the Haiti quake preceded the tidal peak by 18 days, 2) the quake and tsunami of Dec 26, 2004 preceded the tidal peak by 15 days, and 3) the magnitude 7.9 quake that killed 87,000 people in China on May 12, 2008, occurred 21 days before the tidal peak on June 3rd that year. That is three out of seven years when quakes with large death rates have preceded tidal peaks by about 2 weeks (1 in the image below). SO, we know about 'when' they are coming!
After a little bit more looking I would like to add the April 18, 1906 San Francisco quake to the above list, since the tides peaked on May 8th that year. That is a 20 day gap. In 1960 there was a big quake in Chile on May 22nd, and the perigee was within 12 hours of the full moon on June 10th; that is 19 days. In 1972 there was a big quake in Nicaragua on Dec 23. The tides had peaked on Nov 21 and the perigee Dec 19 was within 20 hours of the perigee. That time the quake followed the tides, just as the few that I point to in the video above.
[I will remind you that Mt St Helen's 'woke up' with quakes at the tidal peak (2 above), but didn't erupt until two and three months later (3 and 4 above).]
The July 28, 1976 China quake killed a reported three quarters of a million ppl, and occurred very near the time when the sun conjoined Saturn at a new moon. In 1811 and 12, New Madrid, Missouri saw four of the largest quakes in US her-story. The first of these was on Dec 16th and occurred very near a sun/Saturn conjunction at a new moon. In 1906, the April 18th San Francisco quake was preceded by a Feb 23 eclipse (new moon) that conjoined Saturn.
The last time California saw quakes above 6.0 was 2005. In 2009 we saw a 5.1 quake in Calexico at the new moon in Sept, then just before the next full moon in October there were 5.1 and 5.2 quakes. Just before the full moon and eclipse on Dec 31st, there was a 5.8 quake that became the largest of the year, after these others. The on Jan 9th there was a 6.5 off the coast of north California. The Sept 19th quake happened the day after the sun conjoined Saturn at a new moon. I posted a video in Dec 2008 and predicted a quake in California for Sept 18th (my Youtube handle is dcsymbols). That quake is the one that initiated this recent series, and occurred at one of those conjunctions.
* Jan 19 Cayman Islands Earthquake: Is This a Trend? - "It seems as though we’re experiencing an “earthquake season,” but according to the US Geological Survey, earthquakes are as likely to happen at any time of the day, month or year. And while earthquakes do sometimes occur in clusters, there’s no great meaning". Yeah, right.
A SEPARATE ISSUE: Italian disaster expert attacks US Haiti earthquake response. Guido Bertolaso, Italy's top disaster expert, has attack the US response to the Haiti earthquake, criticising its lack of organization and the reliance on soldiers with no training in humanitarian operations. "The Americans are extraordinary, but when you are facing a situation in chaos, they tend to confuse military intervention with emergency aid, which cannot be entrusted to the armed forces." Mr Bertolaso, head of Italy's civil protection service who received international acclaim for his handling of an L'Aquila earthquake last April 6th (when the moon conjoined Saturn), described the response as "a pathetic situation which could have been much better organized".
predicting earthquakes
In the California earthquake section below, you can read that we are now in the time period for larger California quakes, based on movements of the moon. The quakes have increased from 5.1 on Sept 19th, to 5.2 Oct 3rd, to 5.8 Dec 30, to 6.5 Jan 9th. Down the page you can read the reasons why I don't think that those quakes have topped out yet. In the meantime, consider some forecasting done by the other guys.
On the page linked to in the title, I look at Luke who 'predicts' California quakes. Last month he called for a big quake near San Francisco on Jan 18th, and when that didn't happen, he wrote that the 18th was the 'main signal' for a quake on the 27th. When that didn't happen we see, "Spike in risk - Jan 18 & 27 were "main signals" for earthquake coming Jan 30 - Feb 3 - Most likely on Feb 2 (5.5-6.5) in Milpitas/San Jose. http://www.quakeprediction.com/". And so on, and so on. I have followed his work for 15 months now.
Also on that page is a section where I talk about my attempts at posting what you find here in the GRAHAM HANCOCK MESSAGE BOARDS, where I posted my predictions and Luke's side by side with some interesting results. They discounted what I was writing and wouldn't allow me to post in the science section since 'science doesn't have anything to do with predicting things' according to them; and they asked that I not post Luke's forecasts since they were inflammatory.
I was trying to post my predictions about the first two weeks of the year on the GH Message Boards, but gave up due to the hostile posters and moderators there. The title of my early January section, 'A countdown to a potentially hazardous event' was taken from a moderators response to my posts. I guess that you can see what has come of my forecast. And they say that science doesn't deal with predicting things? Here is Luke's most recent outburst.
*** Feb 9: WARNING: 5.0 to 6.0 earthquake likely in Southern California next 12 hours. Please see maps @ http://www.quakeprediction.com/
about 15 hours ago from web
Ooops. I'm sorry; that didn't happen. Note that is not MY forecast, but is Luke's. Take a look at his maps, as he suggests, and notice that he paints the highest RISK areas blue?? He is a Moron (I didn't say retard, OK?). Now look at
his Twitter page and see how many forecasts there are just like that one that just didn't happen. "WARNING; Ventura to Bakersfield & NW Los Angeles should prepare for 4.5-6.0 earthquake in the next 48 hrs http://www.quakeprediction.com/
3:09 PM Feb 5th from web"
"4.5 to 6.0 earthquake is possible on February 16-17 in the San Francisco area. Please see maps @ http://www.quakeprediction.com/
7:12 PM Feb 14th from web", "48 Hour Warning; 4.5 to 6.0 earthquake is possible within 80 miles of Oakland Feb 16-17; http://www.quakeprediction.com/
12:43 PM Feb 15th from web", "Please RT; 4.5 to 6.0 earthquake is likely within 80 miles of Oakland during the next 48 to 72 hours. http://www.quakeprediction.com/
4:55 PM Feb 15th from web".
"Swarm of earthquakes in Redlands & forecast maps indicate 5.0-6.0 earthquake is possible Feb 20-23."
Proclamations like those made by Luke, are most effective if they sound urgent and if they come from an authoritative source; from someone who knows, or acts as if they do. Another thing that helps is if the authority is based on something that at least looks 'scientific', because if it does not, then it is based on feelings, intuitions and dreams, which does not appeal to the scientific types. One makes a choice as a presenter whether to appear 'scientific' or as a 'see-er'. As I said, for your method to be credible, it needs to be such that you can hand it off to someone else, and they can do the same thing based on that.
Unfortunately for Luke he has not been right, and he masks the workings of his method in... Well, look for yourself -
Feb 10 we see "NEW; Improved earthquake forecasting model. Please see maps. Dangerous amount of risk across Southern California on February 13-15, 2010. Please be prepared with extra food, gas, water, and emergency kit." He sounds like a detergent ad. A new forecasting model over night. At this time last year he was producing Utube vids predicting a magnitude 7 quake for the longest time. He deleted that channel after twice deleting his sad videos. I have written to the California Attorney General about Luke's fear mongering ways.
Feb 11th we see "3.4 earthquake hits high risk area near Paso Robles, CA @ 12:33 AM - Feb 11". Compare the quake location to
Luke's Feb 11th risk map and see how he operates. Note that he lists two 'high risk colors? "High Risk = Red, High Risk = Red-Orange", and two low risk colors, "Low Risk = Yellow, Low Risk = Green" and two Very high risk colors, "Very High Risk = Violet,
Very High Risk = Blue-Violet". He has 5 risk categories represented by eight colors. Notice that the REAL high risk area was on the Nevada border and the quake occurred practically on the coast. You can call that a 'hit' if you want to, but the fact remains that a quake DID NOT happen in his highest risk area AGAIN.
Now Luke has a flashgallery which shows his daily forecast maps with the actual quakes marked on them. Note that he does not wait for the meter to settle down, and likes to log the largest number that he reads for a quake. See how many days there are with no quakes in blue areas. You can check the number yourself on the list of
recent Caliquake M 3 and above.
Bigbytes Predicts - that the plotting the quakes that happen against his prediction maps won't last long as that will show on a daily basis how bad Luke is at this. If you look at Luke's Twitter page you will see that he has to pad his quake predictions and updates with reports of worldwide quakes, since his quakes that he is predicting aren't happening. Lots of calls for 5 and 6 point quakes mix with reports of 3 pointers.
To my mind, you can count every place marked very high risk a miss every day that we see them. On his Feb 10 map we see the north and south ends of the state bright blue, but no quakes listed there - that is two misses. On Feb 11th we see THREE blue places indicating highest risk with no quakes in those areas - that is three more misses, for 5 in two days.
Wait, there's more; TWO NOTES. "NOTE: Dangerous amount of risk across Southern California on February 13-15,2010.
NOTE: Dangerous amount of risk across Northern California on February 16,2010." Dangerous amount of risk for one day?? Take a look at what he was spouting on his Twiiter page for Feb 8th and compare to this. Even if this method does from time to time result in a 'hit', you will need to count up all the misses from day to day, and week to week. OR you can do like Luke does, and discount all misses. Remember that on Feb 9th he was calling for a 5 to 6 point quake in the next 12 hours. If you do that, and cover half the state with color in each map, you are sure to hit some.
With that said, I invite you to look at my forecast for the period in question above, and compare my results with Luke's.
In the California earthquake section (below) you can see where I posted a video in December of 2008 in which I predicted a Caliquake for Sept 18th. The magnitude 5.1 quake in Calexico on the 19th was the largest in the state that year up to that point. It is the quake which initiated this local spike in magnitudes. In Feb 2009 I posted a video pointing to April 6th as an earthquake target date; that was the day of the Italian quake last year.
Saturn's Connection to Earthquakes
In July 1976, I read a newspaper article where a local man was predicting an earthquake for Bali for July 28th. He based his prediction on the fact that the sun and the moon were going to be in conjunction with Saturn at that time. The quake didn't happen in Bali, it happened in China, on the 28th as he said, and it killed three quarters of a million people.
After the quake I saw two different articles that, while describing the China quake, 'fluff' the article with the fact that the Dec 16, 1811 New Madrid, Missouri, was one of the largest quakes in US history. When I looked at an ephemeris, I discovered that on Dec 16th, the sun and moon conjoined Saturn, just like in 1976. If you look, you will see that there were four quakes in the New Madrid area that winter. If you look at the eclipse that preceded the 1906 San Francisco quake, you will see the sun and moon conjoining Saturn there as well.
Armed with what I know about the eclipses and the California quakes, that is that we are now in the time after the Pisces eclipses when we see larger Caliquakes, I was looking at an ephemeris in 2008 and noticed that the sun, moon and Saturn would conjoin Sept 18th, 2009. I posted a video in Dec 2008, where I predicted a quake in California for Sept 18th. You will note, that that was right before the solstice, and that Mercury conjoined the sun soon there after.
As it turned out, there was a 5.1 quake on the 19th, that was the largest in the state up to that date in California. THEN on Sept 29th, the largest quake in the world for 2009 happened as the moon conjoined Jupiter. At the next new moon, there were 5.1 and 5.2 quakes; the latter becoming the largest in the state. That was followed by a 5.8 just before the eclipse of Dec 31, 2009, then the 6.5 on Jan 9th, just before the sun conjoined Venus. The last time California saw activity like this was 2005.
Near the top of this page, I mentioned the moon/Saturn conjunction as an earthquake marker;
here is an image of the planets for December 26, 2004, the day of the magnitude 9.1 quake and tsunami. You will note that it was a full moon, Mercury was conjoining Venus, just before the moon conjoined Saturn. That was the third largest modern earthquake. Notice that with three aspects happening together, it would be difficult to determine the exact time of these events.
The Jan 9 magnitude 6.5 quake off the coast of California occurred in between the moon's conjunction with Saturn (6th) and the conjunction of Venus and the sun (11th). The Haiti quake followed the Venus/sun conjunction and preceded the solar eclipse.
Below we compare moon conjunctions with Saturn in 2009 with quake times. I have generated
an animation, that focuses on the moon/Saturn conjunctions beginning Dec 10, 2009, which you see listed below.
Jan 15 magnitude 7.4 quake moon conjoins Saturn
Feb 11 magnitude 7.2 quake moon conjoins Saturn
March 11 magnitude 5.9, 5.9 quakes moon conjoins Saturn
April 6 magnitude 6.3 quake moon conjoins Saturn
April 7 magnitude 6.9 quake moon conjoins Saturn
May 3 magnitude 6.2 quake moon conjoins Saturn
June 2 magnitude 6.3 quake moon conjoins Saturn
Dec 10 4 magnitude 6+ quakes in two days moon conjoins Saturn
Sept 19 magnitude 5.1 quake in California moon conjoins Saturn
Here is a list of the days that the moon conjoins Saturn from 1995 to 2016. Below you can see the 2010 conjunctions. Notice where Saturn retrogrades back into Virgo before moving on.
Here you can see that the moon conjoins Saturn on Feb 2 just after the perigee (tidal peak) of Jan 30, that it conjoins Sat March 1, closely following the perigee of Feb 27, that it conjoins Saturn March 29 after the perigee of March 28, and April 25 the moon conjoins Saturn after the perigee of April 24. I think you get the point, that the moon's conjunction with Saturn will be coinciding with the lunar perigee for a bit in 2010.
The next three charts show you one, two and three months after the peak Jan 30th.
March 1, the moon conjoins Saturn following the full moon. As it conjoins Saturn, Venus and Uranus are conjoining opposite to them. The sun is also conjoining Jupiter here (above). That is Mercury near Neptune (geocentrically speaking).
March 29, the moon conjoins Saturn and opposes Uranus before the full moon. The two are very close here, two months after the peak and a week after the equinox. Jupiter is over half way from Neptune to Uranus.
April 27th, the moon is full following the Saturn conjunction, as Mercury conjoins the sun. Saturn is opposing Uranus and Jupiter is getting close to joining them three months after the peak of the tides. I'd say a tornado or two, and that someone is going to loose a mobile home. Is it too late for snow where you live on April 27th? You say, "Watch for quakes from the 24th through the 28th or so"?
If you look at quake records you find that the largest and deadliest quake in all of 2008 was on 05 12 - Eastern Sichuan, China - M 7.9 Fatalities 87,587. Looking at the moon/Saturn conjunctions we see Mon) 5/12/2008 2:01pm Moon (Vir) Con (Vir) Saturn. Now look at July 1976 and see (Thu) 7/29/1976 6:03am Sun (Leo) Con (Leo) Saturn. On July 28th China saw its worst modern quake
1976 07 28 - Tangshan, China - M 7.5 Fatalities 755,000.
Dec 9: ‘Monster’ storm whacks Midwest, heads east, 6.4r quake southeast of Loyalty Islands, a 6.4r in the mid-Atlantic Ridge, and a 6.0r in Indonesia.
Dec 10: 6.3r quake in the Sea of Okhotsk. Snowstorm debilitates the Midwest
The region is warned of 'extremely dangerous blizzard conditions' as schools are closed, flights are canceled and delayed, and motorists are stranded. At least 12 people have been killed.
Dec 10: Moon conjoins Saturn opposite to Uranus.
It is Jan 5th and it is cold as hell, and we are seeing a repeat of what happened last month when the moon approached Saturn, that is snow and earthquakes. There have been six quakes above magnitude 6 and one that was 7.2, all before the moon has reached Saturn. As another magnitude 6 quake happened on the 5th, that was three over 6 points in 24 hours just before the conjunction. There is more cold on the way this week.
Jan 20: I just want to point out, that at the end of January, the full moon conjoins Mars at the tidal peak just before the moon conjoins Saturn again. Do you want to bet on snow and quakes then?
But he doesn't know the territory!
Some of you may recognize that as a line from the play "The Music Man", where the discussion is about a salesman named Hill. Hill? Hill. HILL!!
You will want to note that last year there were 7+r quakes that occurred when the moon was within 2.5 degrees of Saturn in January and February, and the quake in Italy occurred when the moon was 9 degrees from Saturn. (The moon moves 13 degrees a day). I wrote to several ppl about the moon and Saturn, and one of them was John Thomas Bryant, Jr.
I wrote him in the fall of 2008 and suggested that he watch the moon/Saturn conjunctions for earthquakes. The next thing I know, he is posting forecasts that coincide closely with dates that I have given him to watch, and he is suggesting that he is correct and that my method does not work.
Here (Dec 2008) John announces Entering a Period of Significant Earthquake Activity, due to a coronal hole that he has been watching. There were two 7+r quakes on the January the third as we made our close approach to the sun. John denied the connection. After the quakes he posts
this video to try and account. Note where he says at :40, "I didn't expect it to be this big".
Please see this video Feb 14th Earthquake Prediction, where he is explaining why he posted a prediction AFTER the quake of Feb 11 had occurred, and is predicting more quakes to follow, due to ejections from the sun. ["Another large quake or series of quakes may be indicated by holes in the solar corona. The location and magnitude of the quake are unknown."]
Notice at 1:30, where John suggests that I am more interested in who is right than in what is right. That comes after he mentions my California quake prediction based on astronomy. I said Sept 18 (in a Dec 2008 video) and the quake occurred Sept 19th. That was also a conjunction of the moon and Saturn near a Mercury sun conjunction. (Like Jan 4-6, 2010).
I posted a video on Feb 14th where I pointed to the moon's conjunction with Saturn on April 6th as a quake marker. The quake in Italy occurred on April 6th. See Earthquake Prediction AV, where John forecasts quakes up to the 5th, but not the 6th. Note that he names Indonesia and Japan. Note also, he is predicting based on the 'look or shape' of the coronal hole. He follows the first video with
a second one where he lists several 5+ quakes that supposedly happened due to a storm from the sun. As I point out, the big quake was in Italy on April 6th when the moon conjoined Saturn.
Moon/Jupiter Conjunctions
Later in 2009, the quake reaction to the moon/Saturn conjunction was not as strong as in the early part of the year. In September, the larger quakes began coinciding with the moon/Jupiter conjunction. The 5.1 magnitude quake in Calexico followed the moon/Sat conjunction (Sept 18th), and after that, rather than big quakes, the conjunction has been producing clusters of magnitude 6 quakes.
I have generated
an animation that shows the moon moving between conjoining and opposing Jupiter from Nov 23, 2009 to Oct 7 2010.
On Sept 29th the moon conjoined Jupiter and Neptune, and the largest quake in the world this year happened. See the bottom of the page for more on the moon and Jupiter. As you can see from this page, I post images of charts with the planets for each event. I did the same for that event, weeks ahead of time. On Sept 28th John posts AV 2009-09-28 - Recent Coronal Holes Indicate Approaching Seismic Events. Notice his comment, "I didn't expect the Indonesia quake, this is a different kind of event than the one I'm forecasting with the coronal holes." A different kind of event?
So, John's program failed to explain the largest quake in the world, and failed to predict the largest quakes in California this year. As you can see, questions arise about quakes without coronal holes, as well as coronal holes that don't produce quakes. (See Success Criteria below.) Take a look at this May 5th video entitled
"CH May Indicate Equitorial Quake", where he predicts one or more quakes up to 7.3r in the next six days based on the size and shape of a coronal hole (CH). A 7.3r quake did happen, but not until May 28th, just before the moon opposed the conjoining Jupiter and Neptune.
See Astrotometry and Earthquakes, a Youtube playlist of John's earthquake related videos. Here is the playlist that John has entitled
Predicting Earthquakes with Astrotometry. Note that two of the videos are not his, deal with the quake in Italy that he didn't predict, don't deal with astrotometry. The reason they are included is because a person in Italy was claiming they had predicted it - Not John. Notice the website that he directs you to coreweather.com, was last updated in 2008!
To get a feel for how John thinks, take a look at the video where he suggests that a
"Mark on Jupiter May Indicate a Large Sunspot"? In one of his vids he suggests that he believes that NASA is secretly following his 'work'.
***But back to the task at hand. California saw the three largest quake this year on Sept 19, Oct 1 and 3, which were just after the new moon, and just before the next full moon on either sides of the equinox. The world's largest quake occurred at the moon's conjunction with Jupiter and Neptune on Sept 29th, in between the other events, and following the equinox. I expect something similar in January, and look for one of the focal points to be Jan 6th when the moon conjoins Saturn again.
Follow up: Dec 30: 5.8r quake 22.1 mi SE of Calexico, CA; making it the largest in the state this year. The Sept 19th quake was 5.1r and 24.8 mi SSE of Calexico, CA. California saw a magnitude 4 quake just after the moon conjoined Saturn just like in September; the quake was Jan 7th. Magnitude 6.5 quake offshore of Eureka, CA Jan 9th as Venus approaches the middle of the backside of the sun. On January 12 a Magnitude 7 quake devastated Haiti.
There is a coronal hole on the sun the week of Jan 11th (today) and a solar wind flowing from that may impact the earth on Jan 12 or 13; I have been expecting him to post about a quake from that. Here is the video that I was expecting: Earthquake Watch Until January 16th - AV-2010-01-11
"Astrotometry of recent holes in the solar corona indicate upcoming inconsistencies in the Earth's hypertime translation. During the period January 11th to January 16th a very strong seismic event above 7.7 in magnitude is probable and several seismic events above 6 in magnitude are expected in the Northern Hemisphere. In order of probability, the quake-prone watch regions most likely to be effected are: Indonesia, California, West Central Asia, Southeastern Europe (near Greece or Italy) and Hawaii. A separate coronal hole indicates a quake of lesser magnitude in the Solomon islands region in the Southern Hemisphere near the end of the watch period or shortly after." Note that John posts a disclaimer with his vids, Luke does not.
Here is John's explanation for the Haiti quake entitled Haitian Quake Follow Up. As you see, Haiti didn't make his list. As a matter of fact, the first place that he chooses as the most likely spot for his northern hemisphere quake is Indonesia which straddles the equator and is mainly south of that? As he routinely chooses the places where quakes occur the most, there is no way that he could have predicted Haiti. Note especially that John never mentions the fact that Venus is behind the sun.
Jan 13th we see this comment posted to John's quake forecast video, "Man... your predictions are so freightening correct! This is not the first? time that you've predicted earthquake. You have just mistaken hemisphere location of earthquake. But OK, we can ignore that... Nice job, really! Go on." He never mentions Haiti or that part of the world, but John is frighteningly correct? Come on. Oh, we can ignore the fact that he is wrong in his hemispheres. So how do you rate that?
