As a baby his mother fed him frogs and a wide assortment of lizards, and
It made him tough, wise and strange, and gave him the mind of a wizard.
* I hope that you will forgive the fact that the text here repeats some, but parts of this were written at different times (literally diff decades) and have been wedged together on a daily/yearly basis. Also remember that my hands hurt (see image above) and I HATE TYPING, so watch for hypos. Please forgive the fact that the text here repeats some, but parts of this were written at different times.
read this page for a year
My pages deal with both short term and long term phenomena. I have kept up with what is happening astronomically and geo-politically on a daily basis for a long time, and attempt to point to long term trends in areas such as California earthquakes and Atlantic hurricanes. There is a lot of material here, and it could take some of you a year to read it all. Note that I am typing real slow on account of I know some of you can't read fast.
bigbytes - My Homepage (email : bigbytes at dcsymbols dot com)
DC Symbols Homepage - Concerning Symbols in the Washington DC map layout as seen from the perspective of a surveyor.
When I went to college, I first studied math and physics as an apprentice rocket scientist, until I discovered a used 'Introduction to Philosophy' book the summer that I spent so much time at the A.R.E. in Virginia Beach. That summer I worked outside at a pre-stressed concrete plant manufacturing four 75 foot long sections at a time. We made 'double T's', which are used as ceilings/floors in apartment buildings.
When I went back to school I switched to social science classes and graduated with a degree in Philosophy. I studied Philosophy, Sociology and Psychology at the graduate level before entering the building trades. I frame and maintain buildings and am a rod and instrument person for surveying crews. The first real job I ever had was as a lineman for a survey crew my freshman year at school. (A lineman cuts a line-of-sight through brush or trees so that the instrument people can complete a 'straight shot'.)
I got my first geocentric/heliocentric ephemeris of the planets in 1976. Here is a list of some of my astronomy related videos. My Utube handle is followingtheplanets in case you want to do a search there.
a method
As you read, you will see that I am presenting a 'method' that can be easily learned and used, and that this is directed to serious students first. I have included enough graphs, tables, charts and links to software on this page, that any organized person should be able to put them to use immediately. I also include a plethora of historic examples.
The method involves watching the patterns of new and full moons, eclipse timings, the timing of tidal peaks, and the rhythms of planetary geometric configurations in general. The research method entails examining a data base of disaster events in an attempt to isolate repeating astronomical factors that correlate to those. When I make a forecast, it is always backed by pointing to astronomical circumstances and historical events.
At one point, I show 20th century eclipse charts and plot both North Atlantic Hurricanes and
California Earthquakes against those. All of this I tie into the fact that the sun has a direction that it travels through local space, just as the earth does. In December the earth is crossing the sun's path behind the sun, and in June it crosses the sun's path in front of the sun. NOT EXACTLY in front, but at an angle. In September the earth's direction is opposite to the sun's instantaneous velocity, while in March we are, in general, moving parallel to the sun's direction.
I recommend that quake and weather forecast models should be based on historical data that indicates a trend that repeats and is predictable, like eclipses and the tides; or sunspots, solar flares and CME's if you prefer. My point is that in order for a model to 'work', it needs to be connected to the past with historical examples. If you propose that there is a correlation between events A and B, the best way to back that claim up would be to show instances where A and B happened together (in time).
That is what I am trying to do here. That and keeping up with events that happen on the earth in relationship to astronomical happenings in general. Please see a section entitled 'Hindcasting' down the page. Hindcasting entails examining a historical data base looking for repeating patterns, like comparing the times of winter storms and hurricanes with peak tides. The following is a simultaneous look into the future and the past.
You can probably tell that you will get more out of reading this if you have some way to illustrate for yourself, what I am talking about here. Although I include charts, images and videos, I strongly recommend that serious students download Astrolog, a free program that allows you to view the planets heliocentrically and geocentrically. Be sure to go to Info/Default Chart Info (Alt + D) to set your long and lat. The images here were generated with Astrolog. It has an animation function too. If you hit the x and m keys you get a black and white screen.
. . .
You will please notice that there are no ads here, and I don't have my name spread all over the page with a picture of myself. Some ppl are annoyed that I am not promoting a personality, just presenting my ideas and contrasting approaches to forecasting.
the planets
Long range forecasters: please refer to these two videos that show animations of the planets for 2011. The first is the geocentric view and the other is the heliocentric view. If you look you will see that we have come through a very active period with lots of planetary conjunctions and groupings. Jupiter has passed Uranus (as seen from the earth) and it has opposed Saturn. Now, the next major configuration involving Jup, Sat, Uran and Nept will be in 2015 when Jupiter opposes Neptune again.
Consider that in the recent past, Saturn has opposed Neptune then Uranus, after which Jupiter conjoined Neptune and Uranus, and then opposed Saturn in early 2011. I repeat that, since Jupiter passed opposite to Saturn there will be NO conjunctions or oppositions of the Big Four Planets for a good long time; a break in the action so to speak.
Mercury passes behind the sun on June 12, 2011. After that, there are no planetary congigurations unitl both Mercury and Venus conjoin the sun August 16th, since all the planets are spread out again.
The Short Story - If you look at the history of California earthquakes, you will find that larger quakes there tend to coincide with Pisces Eclipses and with Jupiter/Neptune conjunctions. Recently Jupiter conjoined Neptune (Sept 2009) after the Pisces eclipse. This was followed by a 6.5 quake in N. California, a 7.2 quake in S. California, and a 6.7 quake in the Gulf of California. I assert that, chances are good, that another large quake will not occur during this cycle. I expect California quakes to return between 2015 and 2017.
In general, the tides peak every seven months, alternately at new and full moons, when the perigee (the moon's monthly close approach to the earth) coincides with a syzygy (a new or a full moon) when the sun, moon and earth lie in the same plane.
Last year the tides peaked the first time at the end of January, during the northern hemisphere's winter. The second peak in 2010 was on September 8th, the time when Atlantic hurricanes peak statistically. The next tidal peak will be in March 2011. More on that down the page in a section entitled, '19 march 2011'. Weather historians will recall the winter of 79-80 and the March blizzard of 1993. I expect something similar in March of 2011. [Tides peaked March 16, 1980, and March 8, 1993.]
If you look at the eruption of Mt St Helen's in 1980, you will see that the quakes started in March when the tides peaked, but the mountain did not have full eruptions until May 18, 25 and June 12. In 2011 the tides peak in March again like they did in 1980. I welcome you to watch to see if volcanoes 'act up' again following that.
If you follow these things you can see that the tidal peaks get later each year. Eclipses, on the other hand, occur earlier each year. In either case, you can tell that the dates will repeat on a regular basis. In what follows, I connect winter storms and hurricanes to tidal cycles, and Caliquakes to eclipse cycles. As you can see, when the tides peak in January, they also peak in August and September, during the hurricane season in the northern hemisphere.
Danger from the Tides. I suggest that storms, as a general rule, happen when the tides peak, and that the nature of the storms depends on when the tides peak, meaning in what season.
1980 and the Tides - Tidal theory in practice. Mt St Helen's and my forecast for 1981.
I presume that you know that the southern hemisphere has its summer as the northern hemisphere has its winter. As the earth is closest to the sun the first week in January, that is winter in the north and summer in the south. Tidal peaks that happen near the first week of January are increased by the fact that the solar gravitational factor maximizes then. That is, the highest possible tides would theoretically occur at an eclipsing new moon that is close to the earth (lunar perigee) as the earth is close to the sun on Jan 3rd, a winter day in the north.
If you observe for a while you will see that big storm events follow the times when the tides peak, and that the nature of the storm is determined by the season that it occurs in.
19 march 2011
Tidal expert Fergus Wood, after considering the times of past coastal tidal flooding events, asserted that the storms appear to resonate and get stronger at the second and third anomalistic month after the peaks. That means the second and third lunations. If the tide peaked on a full moon, that would be the second and third full moons after that (3 and 4 above). The last would be the 'climactic' event for the series.
Hopefully you know that the tides result from the earth moving through a 'tidal bulge' that follows the moon. If you don't understand that, please do an image search for 'tidal bulge'; I'll wait... As I say, that follows the moon, and the moon moves an average of 13 degrees across the sky (as seen from the earth) every 24 hours. The tides peak twice a day because of this.
Daily tides peak twice a month at new and full moons (called spring tides) when the sun, moon and earth lie in one plane. [When they are in one line there is an eclipse.] These peaks are larger when a new or full moon coincides with the moon's close approach to the earth (the moon's perigee). This happens every seven months, alternately at new and full moons, and produces the highest tides of the year. The tide peak in January 2010 was at a full moon, the one in September will be at a new moon, and the one in March 2011 will be at another full moon.
As you can figure out, THOSE tides peak when they occur when the earth is closest to the sun on January 3rd (the earth's perihelion). The highest tides happen in the winter time in the northern hemisphere. And, each year the tides peak a little later than the year before. I suggest that the year-to-year rhythm (long term) is analogous to the month-to-month rhythm in a given year. Precursor, peak, spike, climax.
In 1993, the tides peaked on March 8th, an hour from the full moon.
"The Storm of the Century, also known as the ’93 Superstorm, No-Name Hurricane, the White Hurricane, or the (Great) Blizzard of 1993, was a large cyclonic storm that occurred on March 12–March 13, 1993, on the East Coast of North America. It is unique for its intensity, massive size and wide-reaching effect. At its height the storm stretched from Canada to Central America, but its main impact was on the Eastern United States and Cuba. Areas as far south as central Alabama and Georgia received 6 to 8 inches (20 cm) of snow and areas such as Birmingham, Alabama, received up to 12 inches (30 cm) with isolated reports of 16 inches (41 cm). Even the Florida Panhandle reported up to 4 inches (10 cm), with hurricane-force wind gusts and record low barometric pressures. Between Louisiana and Cuba, hurricane-force winds produced high storm surges in the Gulf of Mexico, which along with scattered tornadoes killed dozens of people."
Astrometorology students can look at the three winters of 77, 78, and 79-80 and the tidal peaks then. I have already pointed out that Mt St Helen's erupted in 1980 following a tidal peak that happened March 16th that year. In the legendary snowfall of March 1980, Norfolk, VA was left with almost 42 inches of snow. A March 3, 2009 snow storm in Richmond, VA was described as the largest to hit the area since Jan. 3, 2002, when 7.7 inches fell on the City of Richmond. The storm was also the largest for March since 13 inches of snow fell from March 1-2, 1980, according to the National Weather Service.
OK, that's not all. You will notice that the tide peak on March 19th will be close to the equinox. If you look down the page, you will see that this year (2010) the sun conjoined Uranus at the new moon on March 15th, which produced four M 6+ quakes,a storm in New England and two tropical cyclones. Next year, the conjunction of the sun and Uranus will occur very near the tidal peak.
The tides peak the seond time for 2011 on October 26th, when a new moon is very close to the earth. Notice that this occurs in the latter half of the hurricane season, suggesting that we may see more hurricane action late in the season.
Hindcasting
Since analogues form the basis of all long range forecasts, to be successful, it is essential that the forecaster be a historian of the phenomenon with which they deal. When presenting a forecast (unless one presents one's self as a psychic) we are actually testing an analogue or predictive model, based upon examination of historical data. The method consists of analyzing a data base, in order to try to uncover sequential and recurring patterns that can be used to predict the phenomenon in the future (if that be possible). The key lies in choosing the right data to examine.
This "pattern matching" technique is identical to what we call the "hindcasting" method of astro-meteorology, which entails examining the astronomical configurations that occur at the times of certain events or phenomenon, and projecting any pattern found into the future. [Note that in schizophrenics, this pattern matching function is cancerous, that is, it is
out of control. Thanks to S.O.D. for the link.]
Astro-meteorology and seismology
Astro-meteorology and seismology are studies of significance that depend on both objective and subjective techniques; utilizing empirical, largely analogue methods. Accepting that what happens on the Earth in regard to meteorological and seismic activity can be affected by the positions and motions of the sun, moon, and planets, astro-meteorologists attempt to extract moments of 'astronomical significance' from the flux of time, by identifying 'significant' astronomical configurations.
Please note that long-range forecasts generated by astro-meteorological research should not be seen as competing with those from people in other areas of concern, but rather an attempt to help extend the range of techniques and procedures at the forecaster's disposal; as well as helping to strengthen confidence in popular analogues, or to indicate where they might be unreliable or ineffective.
I would point out that disaster events are quantified in three main ways: 1) as to the magnitude of the event, 2) as to the number of deaths that result, and 3) as to the dollar value of the damage that results. Due to the nature of the events, you will get different looking data results if you search in any one of the three categories. This means that while you can have large quakes that produce a lot of death and damage, a smaller quake can also produce a lot of D&D if it strikes in a city with poorly built structures and no building codes.
On the flip side, you will need to take that into account when you evaluate the outcome of a forecast. Many times powerful storms form that never affect populated areas, and as likely as not, the storms that cause a lot of D&D aren't always the big ones.
* Jan 19 Cayman Islands Earthquake: Is This a Trend? - "It seems as though we’re experiencing an “earthquake season,” but according to the US Geological Survey, earthquakes are as likely to happen at any time of the day, month or year. And while earthquakes do sometimes occur in clusters, there’s no great meaning". Yeah, right.
When they say an earthquake season, what they are referring to is the two months surrounding the Haiti and Chile quakes earlier this year (2010). They are trying to make it appear as if the activity that we saw then was extra-ordinary some how. Take a look at this chart (from 1990) which shows the number of
M 7+ quakes per year from 1900 to 1989. That shows a maximum of 41 quakes in 1943 and a minimum of 6 in 1986. There were only 7 in 1989, the year of the San Jose quake in California that was the strongest since 1906 at that time.
Looking at
worldwide quake records, we see 16 quakes above 7.0 in 2009, but just 3 so far in 2010. In 1943 the average was over 3 a month!
On the sun's direction is space - Describing the motion of the sun. If we imagine the sun's orbit to be a Very Large wire loop, we know that the earth does not orbit the sun in the plane of that loop. The earth's orbital plane is tilted 60 degrees to that. We are 'beside' the sun in March, moving in the same approx direction. In June, we pass below and in front of the sun. In Sept, we are moving in the opposite direction parallel to the sun's instantaneous velocity. In Dec we are behind and above the sun, crossing its path again.
2012: Another Venus Transit - June 2012. The transit takes place very near to an eclipse the first week of June. Note that the quake and tsunami 26 Dec 2004 occurred following a Venus transit that year, close to Krakatoa, which erupted following a Venus transit.
If you have followed what has been presented so far, then you should be ready to look at May and June 2012. The image below is taken from an ephemeris, and I have highlighted the important factors then. We begin with the tidal peak at the full moon on May 6th. (The perigee and full moon occur within the same hour.)
On May 14th the sun conjoins Jupiter; there is a solar eclipse on the 20th; Mercury conjoins Jupiter on the 22nd, it conjoins the sun on the 28th, and conjoins Venus on June 2. Venus conjoins the sun on June 6th, and there is a lunar eclipse on the 4th.
At the lunar eclipse, the moon will be full and 'behind' the earth. At the Venus transit, Venus will between the earth and the sun. When Mercury conjoins the sun, it will be behind it. Mercury conjoins the sun, then conjoins Venus just before it conjoins the sun too.
