Do It Yourself Atlantic Hurricane Forecasting

Astro-meteorology and seismology

  • Astro-meteorology and seismology are studies of significance. Accepting that what happens on the Earth in regard to meterorological and seismic activity can be affected by the positions and motions of the sun, moon, and planets, astro-meteorologists attempt to extract moments of "astronomical significance" from the flux of time, by identifying significant astronomical configurations.

    You will note that it is suggested that fluctuations in solar activity are due to changing planetary geometry. This idea short-cuts the notion that solar activity like flares or coronal mass ejections are responsible for storms or quakes on the earth. The idea is that the sun responds to the planets' movements just as the earth does.

    Hindcasting

  • Since analogues form the basis of all long range forecasts, to be successful, it is essential that the forecaster be a historian of the phenomenon with which they deal. When presenting a forecast (unless one presents one's self as a psychic) we are actually testing an analogue or predictive model, based upon examination of historical data. The method consists of analyzing a data base, in order to try to uncover sequential and recurring patterns that can be used to predict the phenomenon in the future (if that be possible). The key lies in choosing the right data to examine.

    This "pattern matching" technique is identical to what we call the "hindcasting" method of astro-meterorology, which entails examining the astronomical configurations that occur at the times of certain events or phenomenon, and projecting any pattern found into the future. [Note that in schizophrenics, this pattern matching function is cancerous, that is, it is out of control, or as Whitehead says, "their apperception of pattern as such is independent of its eternal existence". Thanks to S.O.D. for the link.]

    What this means is that we want to look at the celestial circumstances at the times of hurricanes in the past, in order to try and find repeating patterns that might allow us to predict the times of hurricanes in the future. In 1974, Fergus Wood wrote to show a connection between tidal peaks and coastal flooding and storms. If you watch you will see that storms occur near times when the tides peak, and that the nature of the storm depends on the season that it occurs in - OR, tidal peaks in hurricane season produce hurricanes, in the winter, snow storms.

    Please note that long-range forecasts generated by astro-meteorological research should not be seen as competing with that from people in other areas of concern, but rather an attempt to help extend the range of techniques and procedures at the forecaster's disposal; as well as helping to strengthen confidence in popular analogues, or to indicate where they might be unreliable or ineffective.

    Quantifiying Disaster Events

  • I would point out that disaster events are quantified in three main ways: 1) as to the magnitude of the event, 2) as to the number of deaths that result, and 3) as to the dollar value of the damage that results. Due to the nature of the events, you will get different looking data results if you search in any one of the three categories. This means that while you can have large quakes that produce a lot of death and damage, a smaller quake can also produce a lot of D&D if it strikes in a city with poorly built structures and no building codes.

    THIS MEANS THAT, as a researcher you get different conceptual results if you do searches for "CAT 5 atlantic hurricanes", "deadliest atlantic hurricanes", "costliest atlantic hurricanes", or "worst atlantic hurricanes".

    On the flip side, you will need to take that into account when you access the outcome of a forecast. Many times powerful storms form that never affect populated areas, and as likely as not, the storms that cause a lot of D&D aren't always the big ones; like with earthquakes. That is, a list of CAT 5 storms is very different from the list of the 'worst' storms. A large storm that does no damage is just a number. (More on this later.)

    Also you will find that often time there is a Big Storm in an otherwise quiet year like 1983 that saw hurricane Alicia. It is hard to tell when you look forward if you are seeing a big storm or a busy year. In a 1983 article I suggested that all the signs pointed to a bad Atlantic Hurricane that year. By that time I had been introduced to the work of Fegus Wood who had connected high tides to coastal flooding and hurricanes. My own study showed that summertime eclipses and the conjunctions of Jupiter and Uranus were involved. 1983 was the quietest quake years in 53 years, but it produced the most expensive Texas storm (at that time). How are you going to predict that?

  • With that said, I will point out that hurricanes peak statistically about Sept 8th. In 2010, the tides peak Sept 8th; we also see Jupiter conjoining Uranus, and summer time eclipses - those are three hurricane indicators.

    *** 'Old Farmer's Almanac' predicts major hurricane for Florida in 2010. The Old Farmer's Almanac — that 218-year-old annual predictor of the next year's weather and collection of household and farming tips — is forecasting a major hurricane for Florida in September 2010.

    *** AccuWeather.com's forecast is calling for a much more active 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season with above-normal threats on the U.S. coastline!! Since the tides peak on Sept 8th, I recommend that the hurricane season will ramp up two weeks before that, and that there will be storms until late in the season.

    The following is my take on what makes 2010 a good year for hurricanes. I include explanations of all the logic for my choice, and point to historic examples to back up my assertions. Remember that I am trying to illustrate a method that YOU can use to predict storms yourself by projecting these patterns into the future. These are the elements that I believe are involved astronomically.

    Remember also that this was written initially for the 1983 hurricane season, when I was pointing to similarities between the celestial circumstances in 1900 and in 1983. The Galeveston Hurricane of Sept 1900 is the grand-daddy of lanfalling US Atlantic Hurricane events. At that time, Hurricane Agnes (1972) was still the most expensive $$-wise, even beating out Camile from 1969. In 1972, the solar eclise happened July 11th just like it will in 2010.

    The Sun's Way

  • It is suggested that among the most (meteorologically) important aspects of the solar system are it's direction and velocity in relationship to local galactic space, and the positions of the planets in relationship to that vector. Currently the sun and the solar system are headed in the direction of alpha Herculi, in the same celestial longitude as Sagittarius (tropical), so that the solar wind that is ejected from the sun forms a bow in front of it and a wake behind it.

    In the image below the sun's current instantaneous velocity is indicated by the arrow. In March we are heading the same direction as the sun is, but in June we are crossing in 'front' of it. In September we are heading the opposite direction, and in December, we are crossing its path, but 'behind' it this time.

    The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs roughly from June 1 to Dec 1 (the top half of the chart above), and hurricanes peak statistically on about Sept 8th. 80% of Atlantic hurricanes occur in three months, August, Sept and Oct.

    In general, we can say that our chances for hurricanes are restricted to six months, and that they are more likely to occur with in a 13 week period of time. Within those weeks, we know that hurricanes are most likely to occur the week on Sept 8. Those are the facts that confront us each year.

    We also need to take into account the current conditons, especially el Nino's. The chart above shows that the number of hurricane days in el Nino years is supressed. '83 and 4 were el Nino years with few hurricanes, yet hurricane Alicia caused record dollar amounts of damge to Texas that summer. The tides peaked Aug 8, 1983, and the storm is dated from Aug 15 - 21.

    Atlantic Hurricanes....and Eclipses

    As I said, when you look at past data, you usually find it divided into intensity, deaths and cost of damage, but some times you find list of 'the worst events'. Consider the times of what the Sept 1980 issue of National Geographics called the 16 worst US hurricanes of the 20th century (at that time), compare with the solar eclipses for that period, and notice that each of these years but one (1957) saw solar eclipses during what we call the summer-time (in the northern hemisphere), and that seven of the sixteen saw Gemini (May 20- June 20) solar eclipses. That would be eclipses that occur as the earth passes 'in front of' the sun.

    All the hurricanes but one in the list occurred in years with solar eclipses in the first half of the hurricane season (from late May to early Sept), with almost half of those happening in years that the eclipses were ahead of the sun. The 1957 storm happened with Saturn ahead of the sun; like in 1900 and 1928.

    Here is an image showing the eclipses for the 20th Century with the hurricanes marked on it. Looking at 1900, 1919 and 1938 we notice eclipses on May 28 and 9. Those are three of the 16 strom years. In 1909 and 1928 we see eclipses on June 17th. Those are two more storm years. The solar eclipse in 1983 was on June 11.

    Note especially that a list of the 19 CAT 5 storms from 1900 to 1980 is different from the 16 listed above, as it is a US list specifically. If you look at those 16 in terms of intensity, deaths, and damage you get three completely different pictures. Notice that of 23 CAT 5 storms from 1928 to 1999, 14 were in years that sa August and September solar eclipses; meaning that the chances for CAT 5 storms appear to increase with those eclipses.

    Jupiter and Uranus

    Jupiter and Uranus conjoined at both the deadly hurricanes in 1900 and 1928. In 1900, the tides peaked in September and October; in 1928 they peaked May 19th, the same day as a solar eclipse.

    If we look at the list and deaths we see that 6000 people died in 1900 and 1800 died in 1928. Looking at the eclipses we see that they were in Gemini both years, that Jupiter was near Uranus both times, and that Saturn was in Sagittarius ahead of the sun at both times.

    For many years the 1900 Galveston Hurricane was held up to be the worst US natural disaster. Here is the astrological chart for Sept 8, 1900. Notice that the moon is opposing the sun and Mercury, and that Saturn is opposite to Neptune. Mercury passed across the back side of the sun later in the week. As the sun's direction is midway of Gemini and Sag, Saturn and Neptune are opposing 13 degrees from that line. Saturn crossed it in 1899.

    Notice that Jupiter is near Uranus, and that they have not crossed the sun's way yet here. As it happens Saturn, Jupiter and Uranus were all in Sagittarius which lies ahead of the sun in its path, while Neptune and Pluot were behind the sun.

    If we fast forward to the 1928 Lake Okechobee storm, we see that Jupiter had just passed Uranus and that Saturn was once again in Sagittarius ahead of the sun. In the 50's these two did not coincide but we had two separate times of storms, one in 54 and 5, and one in 1957 when Saturn was ahead of the sun again. Saturn was ahead of the sun at the time of hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

    When we project these trends into the future, we see that when these three split up that storms continue when Saturn is in Sag and when Jup conjoins Uranus.

    Jupiter and Uranus were near conjunction at times of other hurricanes in;

  • 1915-275 d.,
  • 1940-50 d.,
  • 1954 and 55-184 d.,
  • 1969, when Camille killed 300 on the Gulf coast, and
  • 1983, when Texas saw Alicia, its costliest hurricane at the time,
  • 1998, Hurricane Mitch.

    Jupiter orbits the sun in 12 years and Uranus takes 84 years, seven times Jupiter's period. Jupiter catches Uranus every 14 years, so there are six conjunctions per Uranus orbit. In 1983 Jupiter and Uranus conjoined at 7 Sag, while they had conjoined at 11 Sag in 1900. The solar eclipse was on May 28 in 1900 and on June 11 in 1983. In 1900 the tides peaked on Sept 8 and Oct 8th, while in 1983 they peak August 8th. Hurricane Alicia is listed as running from Aug 15 to 21st, 1983.

    1957

    1957 saw Saturn pass through Sagitarrius, ahead of the sun in it's path, and a hurricane that took 390 lives. Saturn's pass ahead of the sun has coincided with hurricanes in:

  • 1900; the nation's worst natural disaster for almost 90 years, where 6000 died in a storm surge in Galveston, Texas;
  • 1928; when a storm killed 1836 people in Lake Okeechobee,Fla.;
  • 1957;and in
  • 1988; Gilbert.

    For more information on Atlantic hurricanes try looking at: www.nhc.noaa.gov

    So, we find several Atlantic hurricane markers, 1) Saturn ahead of the sun, 2) Jupiter conjoining Uranus, 3) Gemini and Cancer eclipses, 4) tidal peaks in the June - Dec hurricane season. We point out that hurricanes peak statistically about Sept 8th, so we mark that date to begin with. The 1900 Galveston hurricane happened then.

    *** Looking at 2010, we see the second tidal peak of the year occurs at a new moon on Sept 8. Jupiter conjoins Uranus in Sept, and there is a 19 degree Cancer solar eclipse in July. Note especially that 1971 is the only year with July solar eclipses to have seen a CAT 5 storm, and that the 2010 eclipses match 1972 when we saw Hurricane Agnes and the tides match the 1900 Galveston storm. Jupiter and Uranus are conjoining in approximately the same place as they did in 1928, the year of the Lake Okechobee storm.

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