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Almanacs are an old tradition which paralleled the invention of the printing press and the notion of public education. (That was a real lost opportunity, eh? What could have been? I mean, look at the state of 'public miseducation'.) Information, which for thousands of years had been kept secret was being distributed freely, and most importantly, not in an allegorical form. That is, previously astronomical knowledge had been codified in symbols, not spelled out literally as an almanac does.

[Actually, in some case it wasn't much of an improvement. By that I mean, it was suddenly all right for us to say in print that "for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction" and call it science, but it isn't any more elegant than the symbolic expressions of the same thing, such as the two-headed eagle, or the yin/yang emblem, or the Star of David (double equilateral triangles).]

Every year since 1974, when I pick up my new copy of The Farmer's Almanac, I get out a colored marker and I mark the following -

  • the perihelion, the earth's yearly close approach to the sun on January 3 when the sun's gravitational component of the tide peaks. When this occurs, the sun is overhead at 23 degrees south of the equator, and our winter has just begun in the northern hemisphere. Also the earth is moving the fastest through its orbit at this time, just as it is moving slowest around July 4th (aphelion), when we are furthest from the sun (and when the sun aligns with Sirius, the brightest star in the sky).

    [Note that the seasons are opposite in the northern and southern hemispheres, and that the earth covers more distance in the January half of the year, than in the July half. This is what produces the lopsided shape of the analema. The earth's velocity increases until Jan 3, when the earth begins to move away from the sun; then on July 4, it reaches its maximum distance, and is yanked back again.]

  • the lunar perigees, the moon's monthly close approaches to the earth when the moon's gravitational component of the tide peaks.

  • the new and full moons, when the sun, moon and the earth are all in one plane. Note that the period between perigees is shorter than the period between full moons, so that those two cycles do not coincide every month.

  • the solar and lunar eclipses (which are new and full moons), when the sun, moon and earth align in two planes. Not every full or new moon is an eclipse since the plane of the moon's orbit around the earth is different than the plane of the earth's orbit around the sun, the ecliptic. As the plane of the moon's orbit shifts, eclipse happen earlier every year, in a 19 year cycle. Note that the highest tide would occur on a solar eclipse at a perigee on Jan 3.

    * [The implication here is that eclipses are quantitatively and qualitatively different from other syzygies (new or full moons), and that we can expect more dramatic events at eclipses when things are perfectly aligned.]

  • and the conjunctions and oppositions of the planets to the sun and one another. Of special interst here are Mercury and Venus which lie between the earth and the sun. Venus comes between us and the sun once a year, while Mercury does so four times. The same implication holds for these planets, that the effect is more noticeable when the conjunction is also an eclipse, when the planet passes over the face of the sun (as seen from the earth).

    I would like to point out about the outer planets that this year Jupiter conjoins Neptune (catches and passes) while Saturn opposes Uranus (directly opposite one another across the sun). Late last year, I noticed that quakes were occuring as the moon crossed the line between the earth and Saturn, so that has been added to this year's watch list. As the year (2009) progressed, quakes began occuring when the moon conjoined Jupiter and Neptune. This peaked with an 8.0r quake Sept 29th. That was added as a noteable.

    Next I note where any of these points coincide, and during what season that might be (in my hemisphere). I recommend that data will allow us to forecast the times of noteworthy events like storms and quakes; let me explain. We begin with the tides. The image below shows how the moon's major axis is pointed toward the sun every seven months.

    As you can see, the alignment of the axis is shifting, or precessing. Below we see that the moon's major axis precesses 360 degrees in 8.85 years. As a result, the major axis points to the sun every seven months, alternately at new and full moons.

  • When the moon's monthly close approach to the earth (the perigee) coincides with a syzygy (a new or full moon), the result is higher tides, the effects of which look completely different in January than they do in July. Also, since we are close to the sun in the winter in the northern hemisphere, tidal peaks then are higher, and produce winter storms. Please see this Astronomical Alamanac with the information for 2009 plus comments that I have added noting the times of quakes and storms etc. This is the e-version of the Farmer's Almanac.

    I am generating webpages that feature flash animations which depict the movement of the moon through the planets a month at a time. The first one covers between the full moons of Dec 12 and Jan 10. You will note that the moon was close to the earth at both those full moons, on either side of the perihelion. We see a quake before the Dec full moon and one before the Jan full moon, and we see two 7+ quakes at the perihelion during this time period.

    12 09 - Kermadec Islands region - 6.8r
    01 03 - Near the North Coast of Papua, Indonesia - 7.6r Fatalities 5
    01 03 - Near the North Coast of Papua, Indonesia - 7.4r
    01 08 - Costa Rica - 6.1r Fatalities 40

    This shows that with more than one astronomical 'indicator' close by one another, it is difficult to divine just when the associated 'events' might be, and which one will be of greater magnitude, and it gives you an idea how this works. Imagine if the tidal peak had occured at the perihelion!

    The image above shows how the combination of the precession of the moon's orbit combines with the movement of the earth around the sun.

  • After you witness a riot or someone that dies at the times that it looks like there was going to be a storm or a quake event, you will realize why I call the expected events geo-political, because it is not always a geological or meteorological event that takes place.

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